Analysis of the Trend of Childhood and Adolescent (5–19 Years) Obesity and Projection for 2030 and 2050

Abstract

Childhood and adolescent obesity have emerged as a global epidemic, with rapid increases across both developed and developing countries. To analyze global trends in obesity among individuals aged 1–19 years and project prevalence for 2030 and 2050. A systematic review and trend analysis were conducted using global datasets (WHO, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Global Burden of Disease). Projection models including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and forecasting studies were reviewed following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) principles. Childhood and adolescent obesity increased nearly tenfold from 1975 to 2016. By 2021, approximately 493 million young people were affected. Projections indicate prevalence may reach ~30% by 2030, and nearly one-third of children globally by 2050. Rapid increases are expected in Asia and Africa. Without urgent intervention, childhood obesity will become the dominant nutritional disorder globally by 2050. Multi-sectoral preventive strategies are essential.