Push and pull factors of relocation in the coastal zone: what matters most?

Abstract

Abstract Permanent relocation is increasingly proposed as an effective long-term strategy for coastal areas affected by recurrent flooding. While the literature on coastal relocation has been steadily growing—particularly on policy processes, financial mechanisms, and lived experiences—less attention has been given to understanding the reasoning behind relocation decisions. This study provides empirical evidence on the factors that drive willingness to relocate from a telephone survey administered in high-risk coastal settings on the Delmarva Peninsula in Maryland and Hampton Roads, Virginia. Drawing on data from 182 completed surveys, we examined prior flood exposure and reported impacts, willingness to relocate, push and pull factors, preferences for relocation destinations, and socioeconomic characteristics. The most common push factors were disastrous hurricane flooding and financial considerations (i.e., higher taxes, living costs, and insurance rates), and pull factors were low crime rates and proximity to family, friends, and healthcare services. All highly rated intervening factors were related to the relocation process, including assistance tailored to individual needs, a straightforward and transparent program implementation, the opportunity to participate in the planning process, monetary compensation, and moving assistance. The regression analysis identified nine predictors of relocation, including five push factors related to flooding and its secondary impacts on quality of life, and changes in social support. Other predictors included proximity to friends, living outside the FEMA floodplain, free legal and technical advice on moving options, and a preference for a community with conservative policies. These quantitative results can inform policy development, advance spatially explicit modeling of coastal mobility, and help design buyout programs that address comprehensive household needs while aligning with broader community land use and development goals.