Simulating historical and future rainfall and temperature variability and trends in Fedis district, Eastern Ethiopia

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change, driven by human activities, is causing rising global temperatures and rainfall variability. Africa, especially eastern Africa, faces severe impacts due to warming trends, declining rainfall, and reliance on rain-fed agriculture. This research article aimed to analyze past and future climate variability and change in Fedis, Eastern Ethiopia. Historical data were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute for the period 1992–2022. For future projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets were used under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The quantile mapping statistical method was used for future climate downscaling and bias correction. The standardized variable index was used for climate variability analysis. Mann–Kendall test was used for trend assessment. The findings revealed that the district experienced an increase in annual minimum temperature (0.02 °C/year), although not significant, while maximum temperature increased by 0.06 °C/year, and annual rainfall decreased by −2.14 mm/year over the last three decades. Similarly, seasonal trends in rainfall were not significant for both March–May and June–September seasons. Projections showed an increase in annual and seasonal rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 by the 2050s and 2080s in the district under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Future research should integrate crop modeling, extreme climate projections, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities to develop localized adaptation policies.