Unverified Hazard Information and Visit Intention in Mountain Recreation: Within-Person Response Patterns and Implications for Sustainable Destination Management

Abstract

Unverified hazard information may influence destination visit decisions before its veracity is established. This study examined visit intention across three hypothetical situations characterized by different information environments involving the emergence of unverified hazard information, its widespread dissemination, and declining public attention, together with within-person response patterns and associated factors. An online survey presented 1186 mountain recreation participants in Japan with three situations involving unverified reports of ground rumbling at a fictitious mountain. Within-person response patterns and differences across situations were analyzed, and generalized estimating equations accounted for repeated responses when estimating associated factors. Visit intention was lowest in the widespread-dissemination situation and highest in the declining-attention situation. Approximately half of the respondents maintained the same response throughout, whereas the remainder changed their response at least once. Exploratory analyses identified several associations with visit intention involving usual-mountain travel expenditure, gender, selected mountain attractions, and routinely used information sources. The positive estimate for routine social media use was similar in a sensitivity analysis adjusting for respondent-selected visit preconditions, although the 95% confidence interval included the null in that specification. These findings support context-appropriate, consistent risk communication that balances visitor safety with continued recreational use and is therefore relevant to sustainable destination management.