The Role of Sex Ratios in Refugee Inflows and Gendered Host Attitudes: A Vignette Survey Experiment in a German State

Abstract

This study investigates how the sex ratio of refugee populations can shape attitudes toward refugee inflows in a German state. We use an online vignette survey experiment to examine respondents’ nonacceptance of refugee arrivals and four types of perceived threats: job competition, mate competition, threats to German culture, and safety. Respondents are recruited via Meta targeted online advertisement in the German state of Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania. Our results suggest that nonacceptance of a refugee group increases as its male-to-female sex ratio rises. This relationship is particularly pronounced for perceived threats to German culture and safety, when the refugee group is non-white. Respondents’ gender also shapes both overall acceptance and the specific threats that respondents perceive. Female respondents showed more tolerant attitudes than male respondents toward refugee groups with lower male-to-female sex ratios. Female respondents also perceived greater threats to culture and mate competition in the neighborhood from non-white male refugees. Male respondents perceived greater threats from job competition. Both groups showed heightened perceived threats to safety. Overall, our findings show that the demographic composition of refugee inflows interacts with respondent gender to produce distinct patterns of acceptance and threat perception, shedding light on the mechanisms underlying negative attitudes toward refugee arrivals in Germany.