Prospects and complexities in sustainability impacts of global residue-based bioenergy deployment

Abstract

Amid rising global demand for sustainable energy, agricultural and forestry residues (AFRs) emerge as a key yet underutilized resource in energy transition. Mechanisms of how optimizing multipath AFR utilization advances sustainability contributions in varied socioeconomic contexts remain underexplored. Integrating the Global Change Analysis Model and life cycle assessment within an optimized Integrated AFR-to-Energy System (IAES) framework, we evaluate the selected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-related contributions of global IAES deployment across combined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios until 2060. Our results reveal that regional disparities in the contributions to SDGs are driven by variations in AFR availability, technology configurations, and socioeconomic conditions. Most lower-middle-to-low income regions struggle to achieve meaningful sustainability benefits. Canada, where energy output from IAES deployment could meet nearly 20% of its energy demand by 2060, leads the sustainability gains excelling in SDG7 and SDG13, followed by Eastern Europe that strides in SDG1, while China shows comparatively limited prospects. This study offers a comparative, scenario-based basis for informing bioenergy deployment strategies across regional contexts to advance energy transition and the SDGs. This study shows that deploying agricultural and forestry residue-based bioenergy globally could advance multiple Sustainable Development Goals, with benefits varying substantially by region and socioeconomic scenario.