Temporal analysis of area and elevation changes in forest fires in İzmir Province (1995–2025)

Abstract

The intensifying thermal and hydrological stress in the Mediterranean climate zone increases the spatial extent of forest fires and alters their topographic ascent dynamics. This study investigates the spatial acceleration and vertical elevation shifts of forest fires in İzmir Province (1995–2025), utilizing ERA5 climate reanalysis and multi-temporal satellite (Landsat/Sentinel-2) matrices. Climatic findings indicate that the hydrological blockage associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during winter, combined with extreme summer temperature anomalies (29.07 °C), places severe stress on the ecosystem. Under this pressure, forest fires expand horizontally (an increasing trend of 573.7 ha per year) and ascend up to an altitude of 2046 m, overcoming the historical mesic barrier. The cumulative vertical shift of 192 m at the maximum elevation limit was supported by positive correlations between climate-elevation (r = 0.439) and climate-area (r = 0.636). Methodologically, pixel projection asymmetries between sensors account for an approximate 0.06% margin of error (~8 km²) in total area calculations. Furthermore, optical noise from agricultural interfaces and varying cloud-filter responses under extreme fire conditions introduce sensor discrepancies that may skew altitudinal and spatial statistics. Ultimately, the new fire regime migrating to higher altitudes poses risks of a prolonged biological regime shift in endemic habitats and severe post-fire secondary disasters (flood/erosion).