Climate Shocks, Transmission Persistence and the Sustainability of Malaria Control in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence From Dynamic Panel Models

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change continues to intensify malaria transmission across Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), yet the dynamic mechanisms linking climatic variability to persistent disease burden and sustainable development remain unexplored. This study develops a Dynamic Climate‐Malaria‐Disability Framework that conceptualises malaria as a persistent epidemiological process through which climate‐related health risks accumulate over time. Using annual panel data for SSA, dynamic fixed effects and System GMM estimators are employed to account for persistence, heterogeneity, and endogeneity, while Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition examines regional differences in adaptive capacity. The findings reveal four key results. First, malaria transmission exhibits significant temporal persistence, indicating that current disease outcomes are strongly influenced by historical transmission. Second, accounting for persistence substantially attenuates the estimated short‐run effects of climate variability, suggesting that climatic shocks primarily operate through long‐run transmission dynamics. Third, malaria‐related disability evolves as a persistent stock outcome, implying cumulative health losses that undermine human capital and sustainable development. Finally, institutional and socioeconomic capacity moderate the translation of climate‐sensitive transmission into long‐term disability, revealing important regional disparities in resilience. These findings demonstrate that sustainable malaria control requires long‐term investments in climate‐informed surveillance, resilient health systems, integrated vector management, and region‐specific adaptation strategies to strengthen progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.