Low-Carbon Transition Performance of Cropland Use in the Principal Grain-Producing Counties of Sichuan Province: Spatiotemporal Evolution, Spatial Spillovers, and Driving Factors

Abstract

The low-carbon transition of cropland use must reconcile emission reduction with food security in major grain-producing areas. Using panel data for 89 major grain-producing counties in Sichuan Province, China, from 2010 to 2022, this study measures the low-carbon transition performance of cropland use (LCTP-CLU) with a global-benchmark undesirable-output super-efficiency slacks-based measure (GB-US-S-SBM) model. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and a spatial Durbin model are then used to examine spatiotemporal patterns, driving factors, and spillover effects. LCTP-CLU increased overall, with the sample mean rising from 0.558 in 2010 to 0.618 in 2022. Performance was higher in northeastern Sichuan and lower in southwestern Sichuan, and high-value counties became increasingly contiguous by 2022. The cropland area per agricultural worker, multiple-cropping index, and rural economic development significantly improved LCTP-CLU, whereas the agricultural industrial structure reduced it. LCTP-CLU also exhibited significant positive spatial spillovers; cropland area per agricultural worker, multiple-cropping index, and rural economic development generated positive effects in neighboring counties. These findings support differentiated county-level policies and cross-regional coordination to advance low-carbon cropland use while safeguarding grain production.