Seasonal influence on post-fire debris flow likelihood after the 2020 Lake Fire

Abstract

The increasing severity of wildfires in Western North America is widely hypothesized to lead to an increase in the likelihood of post-fire debris flows (PFDF), specifically those triggered by high-intensity rain. PFDF likelihoods are highest in the first year and tend to decrease over time. However, it is not well understood how seasonal variation affects PFDF initiation in the years following a fire. Here, we investigated how different physical parameters influence seasonal PFDF likelihood, informed by four years of field and satellite observations from the 2020 Lake Fire in Southern California. We found that unsaturated hydraulic conductivity was an order of magnitude greater during the dry season than during the wet season, significantly reducing the PFDF likelihood. Our simulations show that vegetation cover has less of an impact on PFDF likelihood than hydraulic conductivity or grain size. This study helps clarify the relative importance of hydraulic conductivity, grain size, and vegetation on PFDF as these parameters vary seasonally and evolve over four years after the fire. Our results suggest that seasonal variation plays a major role in determining PFDF likelihood and therefore, climatic and seasonal patterns need to be considered in future field and modeling studies.