Skills and far-right support: how education and training systems moderate voting behaviour in the knowledge economy

Abstract

Technological change has reshaped labour-market risks for non-tertiary educated workers, but these risks vary across educational tracks and institutional contexts. This article connects comparative political economy research on skill formation with scholarship on far-right voting by asking whether dual vocational education and training systems moderate the relationship between non-tertiary education and far-right vote. Using European Social Survey data on dependent employees covering 42 elections in 18 countries from 2006 to 2019, we compare respondents with general non-tertiary, vocational non-tertiary and tertiary education, linking these profiles to national dual VET prevalence. Multilevel logistic models show that vocational non-tertiary respondents are more likely than general non-tertiary respondents to support far-right parties in low-dual VET contexts, but this premium narrows and reverses as dual VET prevalence rises. We turn to occupational outcomes of vocationally-educated respondents to explain this finding: in higher-dual VET contexts vocational respondents have better occupational outcomes, primarily by means of lower concentration in so-called ‘lousy’ jobs. The findings suggest that skill formation institutions shape exposure to labour market insecurity and far-right appeals, but also point to the limits of supply-side reform alone.