Assessing technologies towards sustainable aviation: a scenario-based analysis using AeroMAPS

Abstract

Abstract Radically reducing the carbon footprint of civil aviation by 2050 may not be possible via technological advancements on aircraft and propulsion system level alone, but with the combined effort of the integration of alternative fuels and carbon offsetting strategies. The paper examines potential decarbonisation pathways for commercial aviation through the application of the framework AeroMAPS. The suitability of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), hydrogen propulsion and electrification in reducing long-term climate impacts across short-, medium- and long-range fleet groups is assessed. Each pathway is first evaluated individually to determine its fundamental feasibility. SAF provides practical near-term reductions due to its drop-in compatibility, although its long-term contribution is limited by feedstock constraints, production costs and continued non-CO 2 effects. Hydrogen propulsion offers greater long-term mitigation through the removal of soot and sulphur emissions, but requires clean hydrogen production, cryogenic storage and new aircraft architectures. Electrification shows a benefit in short-range operations, while remaining challenging for longer-range missions owing to battery energy limits. A combined scenario is subsequently proposed to integrate the strengths of the three approaches. This configuration achieves deeper cumulative emissions reductions than any single pathway alone. An additional Jet A1 plus offsets scenario is analysed to reflect an alternative strategy with lower near-term infrastructure demands. The findings provide a preliminary system level reference for understanding the trade-offs, constraints and progression of propulsion and fuel technologies relevant to aviation’s transition towards net-zero emissions.