Spatio-temporal dynamics, clustering, and hotspot evolution of reported foot-and-mouth disease outbreak burden in Nigeria, 2015–2025

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Nigeria, yet the national spatio-temporal structure of officially reported outbreaks remains poorly characterised. We analysed the temporal dynamics, clustering, and hotspot evolution of reported FMD outbreaks across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2015 to 2025, using World Animal Health Information System records and exploratory spatial data analysis. Outbreak burden followed an episodic pattern, with major surges in 2017 and 2021. The 2021 peak was followed by sustained elevated reporting through 2024. Geographically, burden shifted from North Central dominance in 2017 to a persistent North West configuration by 2023, accounting for 71.3% of nationally reported outbreaks. Spatial autocorrelation analysis combining Global Moran’s I, LISA, and Gi* traced a transition from a low-burden fragmented baseline to a consolidated hotspot anchored on Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto, alongside persistent cold-spot structures across southern states. Reported FMD burden in Nigeria was temporally uneven and spatially concentrated. The Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt warrants prioritisation for field investigation and veterinary deployment, while persistently low-burden states bordering confirmed high-burden zones require structured surveillance capacity assessment rather than passive monitoring.