THE IMPORTANCE OF EFFICIENT POPULATION WELFARE MANAGEMENT IN POVERTY REDUCTION: EVIDENCE FROM BUKHARA REGION, UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This article examines the role of efficient welfare management in poverty reduction in Bukhara region of Uzbekistan during 2019–2025. Using data from thirteen administrative districts, the study applies comparative analysis, regression modeling, and time-series forecasting. Regional poverty declined from 18.4% in 2019 to 5.7% in 2025, with wage growth and the targeted "Iron Notebook" assistance system explaining 99.6% of cross-district variation (R² = 0.9961). The forecasting model identifies a structural poverty floor of 2.50%. Based on these findings, an Integral Welfare-Management Model combining digitalization, inter-agency coordination, territorial development, and well-being monitoring is proposed. Its simulated implementation reduces projected 2030 poverty from 4.50% to 2.60%, with an estimated ROI of 409%.