Exploring European forest management futures: a stakeholder-informed spatial scenario modeling approach

Abstract

European forests are under increasing pressure from climate change and societal demands for ecosystem services, which are progressively formalized through European policy frameworks. Addressing these pressures requires adapting forest management to balance societal demands and policy objectives while accounting for future forest suitability. We explore alternative pathways for European forests, with a focus on the future extent and spatial distribution of five distinct forest management classes within the context of overall land system changes: unmanaged forests, extensive forestry, combined objective forestry, intensive forestry, and very intensive forestry. Based on visions of future forest development sourced from key forest stakeholder organizations, we developed four scenarios, which were subsequently validated through stakeholder workshops and a survey. These scenarios were simulated using the land system model CLUMondo, producing spatially explicit land system and forest management maps for Europe annually until 2050. Forest management distributions differ substantially among scenarios, ranging from a dominance of extensive forestry in the biodiversity focused forests scenario to a more even distribution in the competitive forest industry scenario, with intensive forestry being the most prevalent. Despite these contrasting management trajectories, all scenarios demonstrate an increase in total forest area. Moreover, spatial hotspots of forest gain, loss, deintensification, and intensification are observed across the scenarios, suggesting shifts in forest management dynamics across Europe, irrespective of the scenario. The results provide an explorative framework to assess how alternative management directions may shape future European forests, thereby informing debate and decision-making on forest management pathways and targets.