Wildfire exposure and political participation in Africa

Abstract

Abstract Civic engagement can shape collective responses to climate change. However, evidence on how climate-related disasters affect political participation in Africa remains limited. Combining Global Fire Atlas records with Afrobarometer surveys of more than 100,000 people in 34 African countries, we show that people living close to wildfires are more likely to vote, contact local councillors, attend community meetings, and raise collective issues, whereas protest participation shows weaker responses. These effects are larger in arid regions and among people with higher climate literacy or access to information, members of politically dominant ethnic groups and those living near ethnic boundaries. Our findings suggest that participation is motivated mainly by immediate material loss and demand for public services, rather than environmental concern. These findings highlight the importance of addressing post-disaster needs to sustain political engagement and public support for long-term climate adaptation in the Global South.