Interactions of climate change, economic and social factors on food security: a three-decade impact and threat assessment of Nigeria

Abstract

Aim: This study examines the interactions of climate change, economic, and social factors on food security, by way of a three -decade impact and threat assessment of Nigeria. Methods: The study employs annual time-series data covering 32 observations and applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach to examine both the long-run and short-run relationships among the variables. Prior to estimation, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was conducted to determine the stationarity properties of the variables, while the ARDL bounds test was used to verify the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship. Results: The findings confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between food security and the selected climatic and socio-economic variables. Both the long-run and short-run estimates show that temperature, rainfall variability, relative humidity, population growth, poverty rate, migration, and limited access to credit significantly reduce per capita food expenditure, thereby worsening food security. The error correction model is negative and statistically significant, indicating rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium following short-run disturbances. Diagnostic tests further confirm that the estimated model is statistically robust, free from multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation, and stable over the study period. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that food security in Nigeria is shaped by the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic vulnerabilities, underscoring the need for integrated adaptation and development policies. Strengthening climate-resilient agricultural practices, expanding access to credit, reducing poverty, and enhancing social protection measures are essential to improving household food security and building resilience to future climatic and economic shocks.