Residual Risk-Based Resilience Assessment of Ukrainian Oil and Gas Companies: Scenario-Based Pathways for Sustainable Development

Abstract

Oil and gas companies operating under energy transition and wartime pressures require transparent tools for linking risk diagnosis to feasible sustainable development decisions. This study develops a residual risk-based diagnostic framework and applies it to three major Ukrainian oil and gas companies: NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, PJSC Ukrnafta, and JSC Ukrgasvydobuvannya. The evidence base combines a mixed-mode survey of 140 managers, engineers, and specialists conducted from February to May 2025 with public company information, financial and operational evidence, SWOT and PEST analyses, and collective consensus judgment by the seven-member research team. The survey was used to identify and contextualize sectoral barriers; it was not used to estimate the model parameters directly. For each material risk, the probability of occurrence, potential impact, and mitigation effectiveness were expressed on a [0, 1] scale and combined as residual risk contributions. The resulting company-specific index values were 0.782 for Naftogaz, 0.769 for Ukrnafta, and 0.757 for Ukrgasvydobuvannya under their respective scenario pathways. Deterministic ±10% parameter stress tests produced adverse-case values of 0.637, 0.653, and 0.607. Because the companies were assessed using different material risk sets, these values are interpreted as scenario-specific diagnostics rather than as a strict cross-company ranking or external validation of organizational resilience. The framework supports differentiated risk control and sustainable development priorities while making the assumptions, residual risk contributions, and uncertainty of the assessment explicit.