How Are Green Financial Markets Linked to Green Cryptocurrency Return States? Evidence from a Cross-Quantilogram Approach

Abstract

This paper examines directional quantile dependence from green bonds, clean energy markets, and carbon markets to the return states of five literature-classified green cryptocurrencies. Using daily returns from 25 September 2019 to 23 May 2025, we estimate static cross-quantilograms on a 19×19 quantile grid at lags 1, 5, and 22, 500-observation rolling cross-quantilograms, bootstrap surface tests, and green-specificity comparisons with five cryptocurrencies that used proof-of-work (PoW) consensus throughout the comparison sample. Point estimates display heterogeneous short-run patterns in selected green-bond and carbon-market pairs, but none of the 45 forward surfaces rejects the omnibus null at the 5% level. Rolling estimates vary across windows and tail cutoffs. The largest raw green-group contrast occurs for carbon quota prices at lag five, although its time-series bootstrap interval includes zero and factor-adjusted tests do not detect systematic green-minus-PoW separation. Descriptive quantile-on-quantile connectedness estimates are higher at extreme quantiles than at the median–median state. Overall, the evidence is more consistent with broad cryptocurrency-market conditions than with a uniform dependence pattern associated with the environmental label.