Tracking demographic shifts and epidemiological transition across 44 Asian countries from 1991 to 2023

Abstract

This study investigates the intertwined demographic and epidemiological transitions across Asia’s five regions and empirically examines the association of demographic shifts on the epidemiological transition across 44 Asian nations. Data from 44 Asian nations from 1991 to 2023 was used and retrieved from the World Bank, UN DESA (World Population Prospects 2024), and Global Burden of Disease (1991–2023). Regional aggregates of demographic and epidemiological transitions were visualised using choropleth maps, pyramids, and descriptive statistics (Excel). Lastly, the fixed effects (FE) model was preferred over the random effects (RE) model based on the “Hausman test”. East Asia shows sub-replacement fertility (< 1.3) and ageing pyramids; Central Asia retains high fertility, whereas South Asia faces rapid population growth. Epidemiologically, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominate in East and South Asia, with communicable diseases (CDs) declining in South Asia. Injuries show an erratic trend: transport deaths fell in the East Asia region, but self-harm rose in South and Western Asia. Results from the fixed-effects (FE) model indicate that the size of the older population (65+) and GDP per capita (gdppc) are positively and significantly associated with the share of deaths due to NCDs (ncdm), whereas the coefficient of the crude death rate is negative and significant. This integrated regional and panel data analysis reveals Asia’s non-linear transitions, underscoring dual burdens in South Asia and ageing-NCD synergies in East Asia, urging tailored policies for primary care, NCD prevention, and demographic dividends.