Digital transformation in the global south: Balancing risks and building resilience

Abstract

Digital transformation (DT) is increasingly recognized as vital to enhancing the organizational performance of public sector worldwide. Yet many DT projects fail to achieve their intended outcomes. We argue that these failures are partly attributable to the risk environments surrounding projects before and after implementation. Although DT literature emphasizes risk management and resilience, limited attention has been given to integrating both into DT project design. This paper addresses this gap by examining how these considerations are embedded as strategic elements in DT projects in the Global South. Using a convergent-parallel mixed-methods approach, we analyzed 32 World Bank Group DT project proposals from governments in the Global South using BERTopic-based natural language processing, triangulated with thematic analysis of 13 semi-structured interviews with third-party stakeholders. Findings reveal a systematic gap between resilience assumptions embedded in project designs and the contextual realities of implementation. Specifically, limited local capacity, governance fragmentation, remoteness, geopolitical conflict, and dependence on external suppliers can significantly affect project outputs and outcomes. We conclude by proposing project-level mechanisms to strengthen resilience and identify directions for future research on government-led DT projects in developing-country contexts.