Conservation and Targeted Wild Tending of Schisandra chinensis Under Global Change: Informed by SDMs and Fingerprint Analysis of Climate–Land–Composition Responses

Abstract

Schisandra chinensis (Turcz.) Baill. is a valuable medicinal plant species, and the demand for its wild resources is increasing continuously. However, the response mechanisms of its future habitat suitability and medicinal quality to global change remain poorly understood. This study integrated future climate projections under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, land use dynamics, high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) fingerprint data, and an ensemble species distribution model to assess the habitat suitability, medicinal quality and conservation priorities of S. chinensis. Model performance evaluation indicated that the Biomod2 ensemble model achieves high prediction accuracy, with a True Skill Statistic (TSS) value of 0.882. Under the combined threat of climate change and land use change, the area of suitable habitat for S. chinensis in Heilongjiang Province will only account for 20.471% of the current suitable habitat area under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2090s, and most suitable habitats will shift to the Greater Khingan Range region. The responses of different medicinal components of S. chinensis to future climate change vary considerably: for instance, the area of high-quality distribution for Schisandrol A and Gomisin A shows an overall expanding trend compared with the current status under future climate scenarios, while the area of high-quality distribution for Schizandrin B shows an overall shrinking trend. Within the planned conservation area for S. chinensis in Heilongjiang Province, the coverage of existing nature reserves is only 4.281%, and obvious conservation gaps exist in the Greater Khingan Range and Laoye Mountains regions. In response to the spatial distribution characteristics of the medicinal component content of S. chinensis under future climate change, we recommend implementing wild tending of S. chinensis in Tahe County and Huma County of the Greater Khingan Range region. The above findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and wild tending of S. chinensis.