Assessing renewable energy penetration in the libyan power sector

Abstract

Growing pressure on policymakers to protect the environmental from harmful gases released as a result of using fossil-fuel-based electricity generation lead to transition toward renewable energy systems. This study investigates the market conditions required to enable such a transition by evaluating a renewable energy system consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind, pumped hydro storage (PHS), and gas turbine (GT) technologies (PV/Wind/PHS/GT). The system is designed to meet Libya’s annual electricity demand of 48,111 GWh, with renewable penetration levels ranging from 0% to 100%. Optimal component sizing is determined by minimizing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) while incorporating environmental damage costs. Results show that the optimal configuration is independent of penetration level to the utility grid and can be expressed as linear functions of the penetration ratio (Pr): PV (9,312.2Pr MW), wind (15,445Pr MW), PHS (151,174Pr MWh), and GT (8,234-8,234Pr MW). Under current market conditions, the LCOE is estimated at $373.04/MWh, indicating that large-scale renewable integration is not economically viable. Further analysis identifies the required market conditions based on average capital costs of PV, wind, and PHS systems ($1,100/kW, $3,000/kW, and $3,000/kWh, respectively), and current fuel and carbon prices ($1,050/ton diesel and $70/ton CO 2 ). Results indicate that achieving a viable transition requires either an 80% reduction in system costs, a 215% increase in fuel prices, or a 305% increase in carbon pricing. The findings highlight that renewable deployment remains strongly dependent on policy interventions and governmental financial support.