Rationalising teacher education programmes in Indonesia: oversupply narratives, responsibilisation, and adult learning futures

Abstract

Indonesia’s debate over rationalising and closing higher education programmes has made teacher education a policy concern. Rather than treating graduate oversupply as a verified national labour-market condition, this article examines how oversupply is represented as a policy problem, what evidence authorises it, which interventions it makes reasonable, and how responsibility for adjustment is distributed. Using critical policy discourse analysis, the study analyses twelve Indonesian legal, regulatory, statistical, administrative, policy, and media documents finalised on 21 July 2026, treating scholarship as an interpretive resource. A corpus table and analytical matrix make the evidence and procedure visible. Findings show that numerical and relevance-based framings can make programme reduction appear self-evident while obscuring fragmented governance, institutional incentives, regional variation, and uncertain links between credentials and employment. Capability-building and responsibilisation may coexist within an intervention. Reskilling, career bridging, and institutional conversion become socially just only when supported by funded time, recognised credentials, employment protection, institutional brokerage, opportunity, participation, and enforceable accountability. The article proposes differentiated rationalisation through moratorium, intake reduction, merger, strengthening, conversion, or closure, showing how lifelong learning can function as collective capability infrastructure or transfer systemic risk to individuals and institutions.