An integrated land-use reclassification and scenario-simulation analysis of land system dynamics in China

Abstract

Abstract Context Land-system change reshapes landscapes, but its ecological consequences depend on land-use type, management, and disturbance, not vegetation cover alone. Conventional land-cover classes obscure ecologically distinct uses and cannot consistently link past and projected change. Objectives We developed an integrated land-use reclassification and scenario-simulation framework for China and used it to identify the dominant transition pathways from 2000 to 2020 and their divergence among scenarios by 2030 and 2050. Methods Using the China Land Cover Dataset as the base map, we combined remote sensing with human-activity and disturbance indicators to reclassify China into seven land-use types, separating primary vegetation, secondary vegetation, plantation, and pasture. Land-use patterns were then simulated for 2030 and 2050 under four SSP-RCP scenarios. Results From 2000 to 2020, the cumulative transition area reached 39.99% of China’s territory, and the top eight pathways accounted for 72.91% of the total transition area. Natural habitats contracted while human-dominated types expanded. Secondary vegetation acted as the central intermediate class, gaining area from primary vegetation and supplying it to plantation, cropland, and pasture. Differences among scenarios emerged by 2030 and widened by 2050. Urban expansion and primary vegetation decline occurred under all scenarios. The largest inter-scenario differences appeared in secondary vegetation and cropland, rather than in urban. Conclusions Reclassification reveals structural transitions hidden by conventional classes, notably secondary vegetation’s intermediate role. Because scenarios differ mainly in the spatial reallocation of restoration and agricultural land, landscape planning should coordinate ecological restoration, food security, and natural-habitat protection, not urban-expansion control alone.