Modeling the potential impact of storage on the US power sector in a multisector dynamic context

Abstract

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. Newer, rapidly growing sectors could alter the temporal profile of electricity demand from historical patterns. In addition, substantial increases in variable renewable energy technologies could occur, adding variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. In this context, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the structure and operation of electric power systems. Here we address a gap in multi-sector dynamics models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage investment and operation into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA). We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 196.1 to 372.4 GW (5.0 to 10.6%) of capacity in 2050 and 352.1 to 802.6 GW (6.0 to 9.0%) in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of variable renewable energy to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves utilization of base-load technologies, increases system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of renewable generation.