Cascading risks in the global nickel supply chain and their implications for battery-based electrification

Abstract

Global electrification is rapidly increasing nickel demand because of its role in nickel-rich battery chemistries. Yet the systemic vulnerabilities of the global nickel supply chain and their implications for battery-related electrification remain insufficiently understood. Here, we combine complex network analysis, cascading-failure simulations, and a battery-focused electrification-impact assessment to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and cascading risks of global nickel flows. Using trade data for nickel ores and concentrates, nickel sulfate, and battery-related lithium-ion products, we show that global nickel trade has undergone substantial restructuring over the past decade, with upstream resource flows, midstream processing, and downstream battery-related trade becoming increasingly differentiated across countries. Cascading simulations reveal that systemic influence is not determined by resource endowment alone, but also by countries’ functional positions across mining, processing, and battery-related trade channels. Within the designed simulation grid, 47.6% of the 5,555 simulated cascade scenarios generate positive battery-related electrification exposure. The largest effective nickel deficit reaches 16,065 t Ni, corresponding to 9.46 GWh of battery capacity at risk and an EV production gap of approximately 189.65 thousand vehicles. Additional lifetime operational CO2 emissions depend strongly on downstream substitution pathways, ranging from 4.04 Mt under the MIXED regime to 11.54 Mt under the ICE100 upper-bound regime. These findings highlight the need to assess critical mineral risks through multilayer supply-chain functions and to coordinate nickel supply security with battery industrial policy and transport decarbonization goals.