READING HEATWAVES THROUGH THE CONTEXTUAL REDISTRIBUTION OPERATOR

Abstract

This document presents a reading of heatwaves based on the contextual redistribution operator, denoted ORC. The ORC is the successor to the former K dyn. It is not an adjusted exponential formula, but a local conservation rule. A meteorological station is treated as a node possessing a local dissipation capacity. The K field measures the thermal crispation of that node. When K reaches one, the node saturates and redistributes its excess towards neighbouring nodes proportionally to their couplings. This protocol has been applied without modification to three French regions: the Paris region, the Lyon region and the Mediterranean area. It found the major heatwave episodes of 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023. It was then applied to the year 2024 in the South-West, without calibration. It isolated a single day of collective locking, 11 August 2024. Real data confirm that day as a short and intense heat peak. This document establishes that the reading through the K field, couplings and ORC is transposable and predictive on public data.