Resilience, Not Stress: A Historical Index of Political Stability

Abstract

This study proposes a resilience‑based framework for evaluating political stability through a historical index that captures how states withstand and recover from structural stress. Rather than interpreting instability as the accumulation of stress factors, the model conceptualizes stability as the capacity of political systems to absorb shocks, maintain functional continuity, and restore equilibrium. Drawing on historical cases, the index identifies recurring patterns in the rise and decline of political resilience and demonstrates how structural conditions shape long‑term trajectories more decisively than short‑term events. The framework provides a generalizable tool for comparative politics, enabling systematic assessment of stability across different periods and regions. By emphasizing resilience rather than stress, the study offers a revised perspective on political durability and contributes to broader discussions on state behavior, institutional robustness, and historical dynamics.