A decision-support framework for selecting new energy bus technologies: Assessing battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell buses

Abstract

New energy bus (NEB) technologies, including battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell buses (FCBs), offer pathways to support decarbonisation strategies in public transport. Selecting the most suitable technology represents a multi-dimensional decision problem encompassing trade-offs across different criteria. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the factors influencing the choice of BEBs or FCBs, grouped into technological, economic, managerial, social, environmental, and institutional categories. We address this NEB technology selection problem using a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework integrating the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and the Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to Compromise Solution (MARCOS). Evaluation criteria are identified and refined through a structured expert interview process, and their weights are determined using BWM based on assessments from 34 international experts with diverse backgrounds. The MARCOS method is applied to evaluate and rank NEB alternatives, including BEBs, FCBs, and mixed fleet configurations. Results indicate that economic factors (e.g., vehicle, energy, and infrastructure costs) are the most influential, followed by institutional (e.g., political will and funding) and technological (e.g., driving range and energy system resilience) dimensions. BEBs are identified as the most suitable option for current urban systems, while FCBs remain competitive where operational flexibility is critical. Interestingly, a divergence is observed between academic and industry perspectives, with the former prioritising economic and environmental factors, whereas the latter prioritise institutional and technological factors. This is also reflected in the ranking of alternatives, with academics favouring BEBs and industry experts favouring FCBs, highlighting the importance of incorporating stakeholder perspectives into decision-making.