Half the Capital Stock, One Premise: Japan's ¥1 Quadrillion of Implicit Power-System Credit

Abstract

Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2619 Reliable electricity at economically viable prices underpins long-lived capital. Using a bottom-up classification of more than 170 asset categories, this note estimates Japan's electricity-dependent capital stock at ¥1,000.8 trillion in 2019—49.8 percent of the measured stock of fixed assets, inventories, and household durables, and 1.8 times annual GDP—with a range of ¥403.4 to ¥1,830.7 trillion under alternative dependence weights. The measure captures neither outage losses nor physical damage; it quantifies an "implicit power-system credit" embodied in long-lived, partly irreversible investment commitments. The result motivates, but does not test, the hypothesis that weaker confidence in reliable and affordable electricity has contributed to Japan's weak capital accumulation and sluggish labor-productivity growth since the 2010s.