Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across diverse agro ecological zones of northwestern Ethiopia based on CMIP6 model simulations

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying temperature and precipitation extremes, particularly in topographically complex regions such as northwestern Ethiopia, where local-scale evidence remains limited. This study addresses the lack of woreda-level assessments by analyzing historical and projected climate extremes across three agro-ecological zones (Banja, Dangila, and Guangua) in the Awi Zone. Daily precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, using five carefully selected Global Climate Models (MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, CNRM-CM6-1, GFDL-ESM4, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) based on their performance over Ethiopia. A multi-model ensemble approach was applied to enhance robustness. Climate extremes were evaluated using ETCCDI indices, while trends were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Historical analysis (1981–2014) indicates significant warming across all zones, accompanied by increasing rainfall intensity despite no clear trend in annual totals. Future projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios reveal a persistent rise in temperature extremes, with stronger warming under high emissions. Precipitation extremes intensify notably in the late century under SSP5-8.5, suggesting an increasingly variable hydrological regime. These findings provide critical insights for climate adaptation planning at local scales and contribute to broader understanding of climate extremes in data-scarce regions.