VIDEAT, an Operational System for Rapid Assessment of the Macroseismic Intensity of Earthquakes in Italy, with Estimates of Fatalities and Economic Loss

Abstract

Abstract We present Valutazione dell’Impatto e Degli Effetti Attesi del Terremoto—assessment of the impact and expected effects of the earthquake, a system that provides a time-evolving assessment of earthquake effects in Italy in terms of macroseismic intensity, by combining the most up-to-date information available in real time at predefined intervals after the event. The automated system is designed to integrate intensity values from different sources, namely attenuation models, accelerometric data, crowdsourced reports, and field-assessed intensities from trained technicians. Data integration is performed using a logical decision tree that operates at each timestep to select the best available source as data evolve in both quantity and quality, together with a spatially variable smoothing procedure. Specific weights were assigned to intensities according to the accuracy of each data type, with the highest weights given to observed intensities, namely, values assessed using at least three crowdsourced reports and field-assessed values. After assigning macroseismic intensity to each municipality, the system estimates fatalities and economic losses across Italy, providing stakeholders with information to better guide emergency response procedures. The article analyzes specific earthquakes to show how intensity estimates improve over the hours following the event as instrumental data and citizen-reported and field-assessed intensities become progressively available.