Return Asymmetry in the Market for Counter-Strike 2 In-Game Items

Abstract

This paper examines the market for Counter-Strike 2 in-game items (skins) over the period 2014–2026 and identifies a return asymmetry: items with certain characteristics consistently and substantially outperform items that lack them. The regression analysis identifies starting price as the key return driver: items with a lower entry price exhibit significantly higher percentage returns (the low-base effect), whereas rarity tier and weapon type make no significant contribution to returns once starting price is controlled for. A comparison of case and content price dynamics shows that case returns consistently exceed the returns of their contents: in 80.95% of observations, the case proved to be the higher-return asset. The observed asymmetry is driven by the presence of a fixed-cost component in the case-opening cost structure (the key price), which amplifies the percentage price increase of the case when the value of its contents rises. The lower-bound capitalization of the CS2 case market as of 2026 exceeds $10.2 billion, positioning this market as an independent alternative asset class. Related publications:- Article (Russian version)- Dataset (Russian version)- Dataset (English version)