Co-evolution of cooperation and conflict among organized crime groups: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Abstract

This work investigates the co-evolution of cooperation and conflict (violence) among organized crime groups. Using actor-oriented relational event models, we analyze 179 group cooperation and 141 group conflict events from a UK police force (2004–2015). To estimate undirected relational event models for cooperation, we develop a multiple imputation procedure. Cooperation often recurs and follows transitive patterns, likely reducing partner-selection risk. Conflict is characterized by repeated victimization, outdegree activity, and event-level reciprocity. Embeddedness in cooperative triads reduces conflict, as groups avoid losing valuable partners. We find evidence of differential status conflict-wise. Cooperation and conflict tend to be localized.