The obstacles and changes in Sino-European trade routes in the twenty-first century due to climate change and geopolitical risks

Abstract

In the 21st century, global climate change and geopolitical risks are interconnected, presenting new challenges and influencing the trade dynamics between China and Europe. This paper investigates the effects of climate change and geopolitical risks on the trade route between China and Europe using bibliometric analysis and review. It seeks to identify potential trends in this trade path for the 21st century. Research indicates that, influenced by climate change and geopolitical factors, trade routes between China and Europe are transitioning from traditional single trade channels to multiple trade channels, such as the joint Arctic Northeast Passage and the China-Europe Railway Express. This process generates opportunities, including enhanced efficiency and stability in Sino-Europe trade, due to the development of new trade channels. However, it introduces difficulties, including unpredictability in climate change forecasts and weaknesses arising from geopolitical tensions. This compels China and Europe to take proactive measures. The melting of Arctic sea ice presents new commercial opportunities related to climate change. Consequently, the observed variations in navigable durations and ecological sensitivity have led China and Europe to implement proactive adaptation strategies. This includes collaborative ice monitoring networks and standardized green ship technology, designed to mitigate the effects of environmental risks on supply chains. Geopolitical factors, including trade frictions and regional conflicts, have led to heightened insurance costs and disruptions at critical nodes. This scenario has caused a structural transformation within the trade system across three key areas: trade demand, logistics architecture, and trade distribution. In response, China and Europe have created strategic backup channels and enhanced multilateral mechanisms along with regional cooperation. This paper highlights the necessity of quantifying the mechanisms by which climate change and geopolitical risks influence the trajectory of China-EU trade, aiming to address blind spots in decision-making throughout the transition process. This framework facilitates the prediction of future trends in China-EU trade, considering the influence of these dual drivers. The goal is to address uncertainty, describe the trade pattern’s response, and assess and optimize the response measures of Sino-EU countries, ultimately fostering the sustainable development of Sino-EU trade.