Continual learning for autoregressive PDE surrogates under evolving physical regimes

Abstract

Abstract Deploying machine learning surrogates in scientific simulations faces multifaceted challenges, primary among which is the lack of Continual Learning (CL) capabilities—specifically, the inability to adapt to new physical regimes without significantly degrading performance on prior ones. This is particularly problematic for autoregressive surrogates of time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), where small prediction errors can accumulate over long rollouts and new physical regimes overwrite previously learned dynamics. We formulate this adaptation as a CL problem, demonstrating that while standard Experience Replay (ER) is a robust baseline across Advection-Diffusion, Burgers’, and Navier-Stokes equations, storing full high-resolution rollouts can be memory-inefficient. To address this, we introduce Replay-TS , a temporal-slicing replay strategy that stores compact autoregressive windows sampled across past simulations. Through empirical analysis, we show that Replay-TS exploits the low-frequency spectral redundancy of physical systems to enable sparse supervision for rollout steps. By preserving the contiguous historical context and sparsely penalizing the autoregressive target steps, Replay-TS improves retention performance under a fixed memory budget by leveraging higher sample diversity. Replay-TS consistently outperforms standard ER methods across standard 1D and 2D streams, achieving over a 30% MSE reduction in a mixed-physics stream, while remaining architecture-agnostic.