The climate policy modelling protocol - Climate policy representation in integrated assessment models

Abstract

Model-based scenario analysis is often used to evaluate the impact of national climate policies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. ‘Current Policies’ scenarios are thus normative scenarios that attempt a realistic representation of projected emissions that include policies adopted and implemented by national governments. In this work we present the Climate Policy Modelling Protocol (CPMP), a comprehensive protocol to translate climate policies on a national level into inputs to integrated assessment models (IAMs). Furthermore, we apply the protocol to develop the ‘Current Policies’ scenario using the IMAGE model, and present relevant results. The protocol can be used to guide the implementation of climate policies in national and global models, highlighting the importance of policy selection and quantification in IAMs, and the development of climate policy scenarios that add to the literature on baseline scenarios used by e.g. the IPCC assessment reports and the UNEP Emissions Gap report.