The winner–loser gap in democratic attitudes among politicians: Individual and collective outcomes

Abstract

Abstract Rooted in concerns about losers’ consent to electoral outcomes, a vast literature documents a winner–loser gap in democratic attitudes among voters, with winners displaying systematically more positive attitudes than losers across a range of indicators. Surprisingly, we know much less about whether this gap extends to politicians. This paper addresses this question both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, we distinguish between politicians’ reactions to electoral outcomes at the individual level – whether candidates secure a seat in parliament – and the party level – whether their party enters government, and theorise about their interaction. Empirically, we present comprehensive observational evidence from 27 elections showing that losers systematically report lower satisfaction with democracy, weaker support for representative institutions, and lower perceptions of citizens’ trust. The gap is present at both levels, but the individual-level gap is conditioned by party outcomes: it is most pronounced within winning parties and disappears within losing parties. A complementary analysis leveraging close races and administrative data from Iceland provides plausibility that these associations are, at least in part, causal. Taken together, the findings reveal that democratic attitudes among rank-and-file politicians are, like those of voters, highly malleable and responsive to electoral outcomes. While politicians maintain overall positive attitudes towards democracy, this malleability raises questions about when and how such contingency might translate into anti-democratic behaviour.