Genomic, transcriptomic, and molecular predictors of response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a narrative review

Abstract

Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) has emerged as a key treatment paradigm for locally advanced rectal cancer, reducing distant metastasis rates and facilitating organ preservation in selected patients. However, treatment response remains heterogeneous, highlighting the need for biomarkers that can guide treatment selection and optimise outcomes. This narrative review synthesises the current evidence regarding tumour-intrinsic genomic biomarkers associated with response to neoadjuvant therapy, encompassing somatic mutations, germline polymorphisms, gene expression profiles, mismatch repair (MMR) status, protein expression, epigenetic markers, and circulating tumour-derived biomarkers across conventional chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and TNT paradigms. Across the reviewed literature, individual somatic mutations, including KRAS, TP53, and BRAF, demonstrated limited reproducibility as predictive biomarkers, although KRAS mutations were recurrently associated with lower pathological complete response (pCR) rates in CRT-era cohorts. Germline polymorphisms in DNA repair (XRCC1) and folate metabolism (MTHFR) genes showed inconsistent associations with treatment response. In contrast, transcriptomic biomarkers demonstrated greater biological coherence, with proliferative, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and metabolic signatures frequently associated with treatment resistance, while multi-gene classifiers generally outperformed single-gene markers. Among currently available tumour-intrinsic biomarkers, MMR deficiency was the most consistently reported biomarker associated with reduced response to fluoropyrimidine-based regimens, including TNT, although TNT-specific evidence remains comparatively limited. Dynamic circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) monitoring, particularly ctDNA clearance during or after therapy, was consistently associated with pathological response and long-term oncologic outcomes across reviewed studies, whereas baseline ctDNA levels showed limited predictive value. Overall, the reviewed literature suggests that biomarker research in rectal cancer has evolved from single-gene analyses towards pathway-level and dynamic biomarkers. The integration of transcriptomic signatures, MMR status, and dynamic ctDNA monitoring may represent a promising strategy for personalising neoadjuvant therapy, improving patient selection for organ-preserving approaches, and enhancing oncologic outcomes in locally advanced rectal cancer. Nevertheless, the evidence base remains heterogeneous, and further prospective validation, assay standardisation, and evaluation within contemporary TNT cohorts are required before these biomarkers can be routinely incorporated into clinical decision-making.