When Institutions Are Not Enough: Bottleneck Dynamics in Evaluation Capacity Across the MENA Region

Abstract

This study reconceptualizes evaluation capacity as a noncompensatory system in which specific dimensions function as binding constraints, addressing the puzzle that countries with similar formal capacity scores produce sharply divergent levels of evaluation use. Applying Necessary Condition Analysis to 15 national evaluation systems across the Middle East and North Africa, the analysis identifies necessary conditions for evaluation use, tests for noncompensatory dynamics, and examines how bottleneck configurations vary across national contexts. Four dimensions emerge as strong necessary conditions: Professionalization, Evaluation Education, Organizational Embedding, and Institutionalization. Communication and social system variables show weak, nonsignificant necessity. Countries with formal institutional frameworks but limited professional capacity (Bahrain, Tunisia) achieve uniformly low use, while countries with professional capacity but minimal institutionalization (Lebanon) achieve substantially higher use. The article introduces Necessary Condition Analysis to evaluation research and positions it alongside regression and Qualitative Comparative Analysis as a complementary diagnostic tool, with implications for capacity development sequencing.