Assessing Cultivated Land Abandonment in Hainan Island: Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism

Abstract

Cultivated land abandonment poses a growing threat to regional food security and sustainable land resource allocation in tropical island regions, making the accurate identification of its spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms an urgent research priority. This study addresses existing research gaps by examining cultivated land abandonment in Hainan Island from 2000 to 2025. Utilizing multi-temporal remote sensing images and a geographical detector model, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of abandonment. The findings indicate that the scale of abandoned cultivated land exhibits a phased trend characterized by sharp expansion, significant contraction, and minor fluctuations. Spatially, it displays a pattern of higher values in the northeast and lower values in the southwest, with coastal areas exhibiting greater abandonment than inland regions. Natural factors serve as fundamental constraints, socio-economic factors act as the primary driving forces, and locational factors have gradually assumed dominance. All factors demonstrate a two-factor enhancement effect following interaction. This study underscores the necessity for region-specific strategies to mitigate cultivated land abandonment and promote sustainable agricultural development in tropical island areas.