From net metering to net billing: Insights from Pakistan's 2026 prosumer regulatory reform

Abstract

Pakistan’s National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) introduced the Prosumer Regulations (SRO 251(I)/2026), marking a fundamental shift from net metering to net billing for distributed solar generation. The policy replaces retail-rate compensation with payments linked to the national average energy purchase price, significantly altering the economics of rooftop solar investments. This perspective critically examines the implications of this regulatory transition within Pakistan’s power sector, which is characterized by substantial circular debt, cross-subsidization between consumer classes, and operationally weak distribution companies. The analysis assesses impacts on prosumers, revenue consequences for utilities, and distributional equity considerations. The analysis combines regulatory document review, comparative international evidence, and an illustrative sensitivity analysis using Pakistan-specific tariff data. Results indicate that the transition reduces the blended value of rooftop solar generation by approximately 44–49% for a representative residential prosumer (40% self-consumption, 60% export). These findings suggest that the economic impact of net billing depends primarily on the degree of self-consumption, reinforcing the importance of battery storage and demand-side management under the new regulatory framework. The study emphasizes that sustainable prosumer policy depends on addressing broader structural challenges in the power sector. Priority measures include (i) renegotiating Independent Power Producer (IPP) contracts and (ii) privatizing underperforming DISCOs under performance-based contracts. Without these foundational reforms, the long-term viability of any prosumer compensation mechanism will remain at risk.