Amirhossein MoradiSizkouhi

Restricting a Character-Based Goodness-of-Fit Test on Z 2, 4 : A Power Gain That Is Not Free

Restricting a character-based goodness-of-fit test on Z2,4 to weight-one characters improves power against single-bit alternatives but creates a blind spot against weight-two alternatives.

The Probability of My Existence: A Chain-Rule and Monte Carlo Model of a Family Story

Models a family story as a DAG; derives a closed-form chain-rule probability of one's existence and interprets the tiny result through anthropic reasoning and Gould's contingency thesis.

The Probability of My Existence: A Chain-Rule and Monte Carlo Model of a Family Story

Models a family story as a DAG; derives a closed-form chain-rule probability of one's existence and interprets the tiny result through anthropic reasoning and Gould's contingency thesis.

An Integrated Investment Decision-Making Framework

Proposes a four-stage investment framework combining portfolio management, fundamental analysis, and managerial economics; illustrated with a simulated application to the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Which Class Is Stronger? A Bayesian Solution to a Class-Identification Problem

Bayesian solution to a finite-population class-identification problem; introduces exact certainty from sampling without replacement and derives the expected stopping time via negative hypergeometric waiting times.

Predicting Video Comment Counts Using a Hybrid Statistical and Machine-Learning Framework

Hybrid Negative Binomial regression and tree-based ML framework applied to real YouTube data; view count dominates comment counts, and a data-quality defect is identified and documented.

Quasi-Isometric Rigidity of Teichmüller Space: An Expository Survey of the Eskin-Masur-Kasra Rafi Theorem

Quasi-Isometric Rigidity of Teichmüller Space (A Survey) This is an expository survey of a landmark rigidity theorem for Teichmüller space, proved by Eskin, Masur, and Kasra Rafi. The theorem states that, with a short list of low-complexity exceptions, every quasi-isometry of Tei...

When Should Temporary Capacity Be Added? Optimal Timing of Short-Duration Staffing Boosts in Time-Varying Queues, and Why Fluid Approximations Overstate the Benefit

Service systems facing a predictable demand peak (a lunch rush, a call-center surge) often respond by temporarily adding capacity — a second cashier, an extra agent — for a fixed duration during the busy period. The standard heuristic is to center this temporary capacity on the d...

Pairwise Kinship Data Do Not Determine Multi-Way Admixture Diversity: A Group-Theoretic Illustration

Pairwise kinship data Fst is widely used to measure genetic diversity, but it fails for admixtures of three or more populations. This paper proves why using group theory: two different genetic scenarios can have identical pairwise overlaps but produce different admixture diversit...

When Does a New Purchase (or a New Word) Appear? Exact Probability Theory, Validated by Simulation, and Tested Against Real Text Data

Given m categories drawn independently and identically with probabilities P1,...,Pm, the probability that the n-th draw is of a category not seen in the previous n-1 draws is Pr(n-th new) = Σ_i P_i(1-P_i)^(n-1). We first verify this formula and its close relative, the expected nu...

How Much Does "Success Breeds Success" Actually Change a Free-Throw Sequence? Exact Results Under Illustrative, Literature-Calibrated, and Directly-Estimated State-Dependence, with a Precise Distinction from Dynamical Chaos

Teaching materials on stochastic dependence commonly illustrate the "hot hand" idea with a state-dependent free-throw model in which success probability rises after a make and falls after a miss, often using large, arbitrarily chosen swing magnitudes for pedagogical clarity. We a...

How Much Does "Success Breeds Success" Actually Change a Free-Throw Sequence? Exact Results Under Illustrative, Literature-Calibrated, and Directly-Estimated State-Dependence, with a Precise Distinction from Dynamical Chaos

Teaching materials on stochastic dependence commonly illustrate the "hot hand" idea with a state-dependent free-throw model in which success probability rises after a make and falls after a miss, often using large, arbitrarily chosen swing magnitudes for pedagogical clarity. We a...