From AI Scaling to AI Governance: Technological Revolutions and the Political Economy of Deployment

Abstract

Perspective / review essay arguing that the relevant change in AI development is not a ceiling on capability but a shift in the economic gradient of deployment. Interprets the shift through Carlota Perez's installation/deployment framework as a transition from product competition to infrastructure competition. Evaluates the Anthropic/METR embedded-evaluator arrangement and the draft bill that would generalize it through an eight-dimension framework that distinguishes observed design features from mechanisms of exclusion and from demonstrated effects. Validates the framework against the EU AI Act's conformity-assessment regime, China's algorithm registration regime, and the UK AI Safety Institute. Includes LaTeX sources, BibTeX bibliography, and Node.js DOCX generation scripts. v3 preprint.