LAB #4145 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% (+4.7pp, n=110) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter would have blocked the three wkjudas entries (GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT, NZDUSD SHORT) and the two rizzy5m entries from 2026-08-27 (NZDUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT) — all five were losses or still open. The two rizzy5m wins (GBPUSD SHORT 08-26, NZDUSD SHORT 09-02) would have been preserved, as would the AUDUSD SHORT rizzy7m loss (likely not in DISTRIBUTION). Net effect on this window: removing 5 losing/open trades while keeping 2 wins and 1 loss shifts the live record from 2W/5L/3open to 2W/1L/2open — a clear win-rate improvement, though PnL delta is modest given the small sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +4.7pp win-rate gain on n=110 suggests a real but fragile edge — likely driven by avoiding chop during distribution phases where mean-reversio Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com