LAB #4157 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.6% to 39.7% (+7.1pp, n=146) — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.6% to 39.7% (+7.1pp, n=146) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, the USDCHF LONG filter would have had zero direct impact — none of the 10 listed trades are USDCHF. The claimed +7.1pp win-rate improvement (n=146) is derived from a different instrument and time slice, so it cannot retroactively alter any of these GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, or XAUUSD outcomes. The only indirect effect would be a marginal reduction in total trade count if the filter were applied globally, but since it is instrument-specific, the PnL delta here is effectively nil. This backtest result is not validated by any overlap with the live trade set. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a USDCHF LONG-only filter could plausibly improve win rate if the edge is real and stable, but the sample size (n=146) is small and likely regime-dependent — USDCHF long bias may correlat Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com