Assessing the Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts Across Japan of a Mount Fuji Eruption: A Scenario-Based Dynamic Interregional Analysis

Abstract

This study conducts a scenario-based analysis of the potential economic impacts of an eruption of Mount Fuji across Japan’s urban systems, with a particular focus on the infrastructure services that support urban functions. Using a dynamic interregional input–output model, the analysis incorporates direct damages from multiple volcanic hazards—including ashfall, lava flows, and pyroclastic flow—as well as indirect economic damage propagated through supply chains and infrastructure constraints. We classify Japan’s regions into six categories based on damage intensity and urban functional characteristics. The results reveal a three-layered impact structure comprising: (1) effects arising from physical damage in regions close to the volcano, (2) large-scale but short-term functional disruptions in the metropolitan core due to infrastructure failures, and (3) widespread indirect effects propagated through interregional economic linkages. In terms of absolute economic losses, we find the metropolitan core exerts a dominant influence, with transportation, and service sectors playing particularly critical roles. Our findings hold important policy implications for enhancing the resilience of Japan’s urban systems and ensuring infrastructure redundancy, and offer a useful modeling approach to assessing the risk of volcanic disasters.