Burden of Edentulism and Severe Tooth Loss in Ageing East Asia, 1990–2050

Abstract

Introduction and aims Edentulism and severe tooth loss are important non-fatal oral conditions in ageing societies. This study aimed to quantify temporal trends in disease burden, older-age concentration, sex-specific patterns, and exploratory extrapolations for edentulism and severe tooth loss in the GBD East Asia region and selected East Asian populations. Methods Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023) estimates were extracted for the GBD East Asia region and selected East Asian populations, including China, Taiwan, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Prevalence, YLDs, age-standardised rates, percentage changes, EAPCs, older-age shares, female-to-male ratios, sex-specific temporal trends, and piecewise EAPCs were summarised. Exploratory projections to 2050 extended historical log-linear trends as scenario-based extrapolations. Results In the GBD East Asia region, prevalent cases increased from 27.01 million in 1990 to 75.32 million in 2023, whereas the age-standardised prevalence rate declined from 3438.3 to 3149.4 per 100,000 population. YLDs increased from 729.1 thousand to 2.02 million. Among adults aged 55 years and older in 2023, 42.7% of prevalent cases occurred in those aged 75 years and older, and 12.6% in those aged 85 years and older. Sex-specific patterns varied across populations. Conclusion Absolute burden increased across the populations studied, while age-standardised rates were stable or declined in several populations but increased in Taiwan, China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The divergence indicates growing rehabilitation and maintenance-care needs but cannot be attributed to demographic ageing without formal decomposition. Estimates to 2050 are exploratory scenario-based extrapolations, not forecasts.