Frost risk, phenology and adaptation in cold-climate viticultural systems

Abstract

CONTEXT Late spring frost remains a major climatic constraint in cold- and cool-climate viticulture, where grapevine development is strongly shaped by seasonal temperature variability. Although climatic warming is often expected to reduce frost hazard through declining frost frequency, increasing evidence suggests that frost risk is being reshaped rather than eliminated. In many viticultural regions, warming advances phenological development and extends exposure during sensitive growth stages, creating new forms of vulnerability within vineyard systems. At the same time, the expansion of viticulture into cooler territories has intensified the need to better understand how frost risk operates under changing climatic conditions, particularly in regions where increasing climatic suitability may still coexist with recurrent frost exposure. OBJECTIVE This review examines how frost risk has been conceptualised across climate modelling, grapevine physiology and agronomic management perspectives in cold- and cool-climate viticulture under climatic change. It further explores how interactions between phenology, cold hardiness and territorial variability reshape frost exposure, and derives management implications for established vineyards and the expansion of viticulture into emerging regions. METHODS A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines was conducted using peer-reviewed studies published between 2015 and 2025. Thirty articles were analysed to identify dominant analytical approaches, recurring patterns and interactions between climatic dynamics, plant physiology and vineyard management. The review comparatively examined how different disciplinary perspectives conceptualise frost risk and adaptation in cold- and cool-climate viticultural systems. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Three recurrent but weakly connected analytical perspectives were identified: climate modelling, grapevine physiology and cold hardiness, and agronomic management. Climate-based approaches commonly associate warming with declining frost occurrence and increasing climatic suitability for viticulture. In contrast, physiological and agronomic studies show that earlier budburst, accelerated de-acclimation and persistent frost occurrence during sensitive developmental stages may increase exposure and vulnerability. Collectively, these findings reveal a frost paradox in which declining frost occurrence may coexist with increasing frost risk. The review further demonstrates that frost risk differs between established and emerging viticultural regions, where climatic warming generates distinct forms of exposure and management constraints. SIGNIFICANCE By reframing frost risk through the decoupling between frost occurrence and phenological exposure, this review bridges climatic projections, plant physiology and vineyard-scale management. It translates the available evidence into a decision-oriented framework that identifies which management strategies are most appropriate for different risk contexts and objectives. The findings support more grounded decisions on site selection, vineyard design, phenological management and the expansion of viticulture into emerging cold-climate regions.